2022 Year-End Holiday Travel Forecast

’Tis the season to travel, and AAA estimates 112.7 million people will journey 50 miles or more away from home from December 23 to January 2. That’s an increase of 3.6 million people over last year and closing in on pre-pandemic numbers. 2022 is expected to be the third busiest year for holiday travel since AAA began tracking in 2000.

“This year, travel time will be extended due to Christmas Day and New Year’s Day falling on Sundays,” says Paula Twidale, AAA’s Senior Vice President of Travel. “With hybrid work schedules, we are seeing more people take long weekends to travel because they can work remotely at their destination and be more flexible with the days they depart and return.”

Nearly 102 million Americans will drive to their holiday destinations. Despite roller-coaster gas prices in 2022, this holiday season will see an additional 2 million drivers compared to 2021. Travel by car this year is on par with 2018 but shy of 2019 when 108 million Americans drove out of town for the holidays, the highest year on record.

Air travel will see a 14% increase over last year, with nearly 7.2 million Americans expected to fly. Flights and airports will be packed this holiday season, reminiscent of pre-pandemic days. Demand for flights has surged despite higher airline ticket prices. AAA expects the number of people taking holiday flights this year will come close to matching 2019 when 7.3 million Americans traveled by air.

“If the distance is not reasonable to drive, more people are taking to the air to maximize the time spent at their destination,” Twidale adds. “Conversely, if the travel distances are reasonable and more than one or two people in the household are taking the trip, it may be more cost-effective to drive rather than buy multiple air tickets, rent a car, and spend too much money before the fun even begins.”

Other modes of transportation are also rebounding in a big way. AAA estimates travel by bus, rail, and cruise ship will rise to 3.6 million this holiday season, a 23% increase from last year and nearly 94% of 2019’s volume.

Busiest Corridors and Best/Worst Times to Travel
INRIX, a provider of transportation analytics and insights, expects the most congested days on the road to be Friday before Christmas, December 27 and 28, and on Monday, January 2, as travelers mix with commuters. In major metros, especially in Los Angeles and New York City, drivers could experience double the typical delays. Nationwide, drivers could see travel times up to 25% longer.

“With pre-pandemic levels of travelers hitting the road this holiday, drivers must be prepared for delays in and around major metro areas, with Tuesday, December 27 expected to be the nation’s worst day to travel,” says Bob Pishue, transportation analyst at INRIX. “Our advice is to avoid traveling during peak commuting hours. If schedules allow, leave bright and early or after the afternoon commute.”

Year-End Holiday Travel Period
For purposes of this forecast, the year-end holiday travel period is defined as the 11-day period from Friday, December 23 to Monday, January 2. This period is the same length as the 2021/2022 year-end travel period. The year-end holiday travel period can range from 10 to 13 days, depending on which day of the week Christmas Day and New Year’s Day fall. All the year-end holiday periods contain two weekends.

How does 2022 holiday travel compare to pre-pandemic numbers?
AAA expects this holiday season to nearly match 2018 and reach 94.5% of 2019’s volume. In the past 22 years that AAA has been tracking year-end holiday travel, 2019 was the busiest year, with more than 119 million people venturing 50 miles or more from home. 2018 was the second busiest, with a little more than 113 million Americans traveling. AAA projects 2022 will be the third busiest.

What’s factoring into whether Americans choose to travel or stay home this holiday season?
Americans value and prioritize leisure travel, and 2022 has been no exception. Even though concerns about inflation and the pandemic are holding some people back from traveling this holiday season, nearly 113 million Americans are venturing out to reconnect with loved ones or recharge their batteries. Consumer sentiment may be down from a year ago due to economic uncertainty, but consumer spending remains strong, with travel at the top of the list.

Christmas and New Year’s fall on weekends this year. How will that impact travel?
The busy travel period will be in full swing come Friday, December 23. Because Christmas Day and New Year’s Day fall on Sundays, both will be long holiday weekends. Roads and airports will be packed on the Friday before Christmas, December 27 and 28, and on Monday, January 2. But with the rise in hybrid work, more people now have the option to extend their trips, work remotely from their destinations, and depart and return on less busy travel days. Traveling on the holidays themselves (Christmas Day, New Year’s Eve, and New Year’s Day) is the best way to avoid congestion and crowds.

What can travelers expect on the roads if they drive to their destinations?
AAA estimates nearly 102 million people will drive to their holiday destinations. That’s an additional 2 million drivers on the road this year compared to last. Falling gas prices are a welcome holiday gift for travelers. After record highs this summer, fuel prices have been quickly declining in recent weeks, and by Christmas, many Americans could be paying less for gas than they were last holiday season.

Why are gas prices coming down so quickly?
Gas demand, while holding steady, is lower than in previous years. The number of people fueling up this time of year tends to dip anyway because of shorter days and wintry weather. Meanwhile, total domestic gasoline stocks rose, and refineries across the country came back online after routine maintenance. Steady gasoline demand and increasing supply have contributed to pushing prices lower. As demand remains low and stocks grow, drivers will likely continue to get relief at the pump.

How does air travel this holiday season compare to last?
AAA predicts 7.2 million Americans will take to the skies to close out 2022, a 14% increase over last year. Air travel is rebounding in a big way. This holiday season will reach 98% of pre-pandemic volume. Despite higher airline ticket prices, more holiday travelers are choosing to fly to their destination this year compared to 2021. After a chaotic summer of air travel, airlines have m adjustments to prevent delays and cancellations by hiring additional staff and cutting flight schedules. The one variable no one can control: weather!

What are the top destinations of 2022?
Theme park hotspots Orlando and Anaheim remain two of the most popular domestic destinations. Major cities like New York, Boston, and Atlanta also top the list, as well as sunny spots like Tampa, Phoenix, and Las Vegas. European and Canadian cities top the list of international destinations. Most popular this year are London, Dublin, Rome, Paris, Vancouver, Calgary, and Toronto.

What does AAA anticipate for travel in 2023?
After a slow start to 2022 because of pandemic-related concerns and travel restrictions, the second half of the year has seen an uptick in travel bookings. AAA data shows year-end international travel is surging, and trips are already being booked for 2023. Although we are not back to 2019 levels quite yet, the rebound in travel during the second half of 2022 has helped create momentum for 2023, including for the upcoming “wave season” from January through March, when cruise lines offer some of their best promotions.