AAA: Record 72.2 Million Americans Expected to Travel Domestically July 4th Week

VOORHEES, N.J. (June 24, 2025) - AAA projects 72.2 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home over the Independence Day holiday period from Saturday, June 28 to Sunday, July 6. This year’s domestic travel forecast is an increase of 1.7 million travelers compared to last year and 7 million more than in 2019. AAA’s Independence Day forecast includes two weekends instead of one to better reflect the flow of holiday travelers.

“Summertime is one of the busiest travel seasons of the year, and July 4^th is one of the most popular times to get away,” said Stacey Barber, Vice President of AAA Travel. “Following Memorial Day’s record forecast, AAA is seeing strong demand for road trips and air travel over Independence Day week. With the holiday falling on a Friday, travelers have the option of making it a long weekend or taking the entire week to make memories with family and friends.”

Independence Day Travelers by Mode of Transportation

By Car: AAA projects 61.6 million people will travel by car, a 2.2% increase over last year, and the highest volume on record. This Independence Day holiday period is expected to see an additional 1.3 million road travelers compared to 2024. AAA recommends getting routine vehicle maintenance ahead of your trip and packing an emergency kit. Last July 4^th week, AAA responded to nearly 700,000 emergency roadside assistance calls for issues like dead batteries and flat tires, plus people locking themselves out of their car or running out of gas.

Drivers are seeing some increases at the pump, but summer gas prices are still the lowest they’ve been since 2021. This year, the price of crude oil has kept gas prices on the lower side. The Israel Iran conflict has driven up the price of oil in recent days but not dramatically. Escalation and duration of the conflict are two factors to watch. Weather is also a wild card. The Atlantic hurricane season is underway, and NOAA predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season. Storms along the Gulf Coast can affect oil refineries and disrupt fuel deliveries, leading to a temporary increase in gas prices.

For travelers who are renting cars, AAA car rental partner Hertz says Thursday, July 3^rd is expected to be the busiest day to pick up vehicles. Some of the top destinations based on advanced bookings are also on AAA’s list of most popular places to visit over July 4^th: Orlando, Denver, Boston, Oahu, and Seattle. Hertz says most drivers are looking to rent SUVs and midsize sedans.

AAA Trip Canvas Inspiration: Pack up the car and take a road trip to one of the 10 Best National Parks to Visit in the Summer.

By Air: The number of people traveling by air is also projected to set a new record. AAA expects 5.84 million travelers will fly to their destinations; that’s 8% of all Independence Day travelers. This year’s projection is a 1.4% increase over the previous record set last Independence Day week of 5.76 million air travelers.

According to AAA data, which is based on what travelers paid when they booked their July 4^th trips, a roundtrip domestic flight is averaging $810, 4% more expensive than last year. When booking last-minute flights for summer trips, consider flying on weekdays like Tuesdays or Wednesdays for the best deals.

AAA Trip Canvas Inspiration: Still debating where to take the kids this summer? Check out 17 Best Vacation Spots for Families.

By Other Modes: Travel by other modes is expected to grow by 7.4% over last year. AAA projects 4.78 million people will travel by bus, train, or cruise. This year’s number is just shy of the 2019 record of 4.79 million. Cruising is driving the popularity of this category, particularly this time of year, when Alaska cruise season is in full swing.

AAA Trip Canvas Inspiration: Missed the boat this summer? Start planning now for your Alaska cruise next year! Here are the 9 Best Alaska Cruises for Every Traveler.

In New Jersey, just over 2 million people are projected to travel during the 2025 period - a 2% increase over 2024. The majority will travel by vehicle -- over 1.66 million people -- while 187,440 are estimated to travel by air.

In the Philadelphia-metro area, expect to see significant delays to many popular summer destinations, like Atlantic City, Hershey, the Poconos, and more.

AAA’s Top Independence Day Destinations

The top holiday destinations listed below are based on AAA booking data for the Independence Day travel period. Cruises, beaches, and fireworks are the main motivators for travelers heading to these cities. Alaska cruises are in peak season, Florida and Hawaii are in high demand for their resorts and attractions, and New York and Boston host two of the most popular fireworks shows in the nation. Internationally, Vancouver tops the list followed by Europe’s most in-demand cities during the summer.

Best/Worst Times to Drive and Peak Congestion by Metro

INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, expects Wednesday, July 2 and Sunday, July 6 to be the busiest days on the road. Afternoon hours will be the most congested. Drivers should hit the road in the morning to avoid the worst traffic, but keep in mind construction, crashes, or severe weather could impact travel times. Watch for stopped vehicles and Slow Down, Move Over for emergency responders.

Please note that the times listed below are for the time zone in which the metro is located. For example, Atlanta routes = ET and Los Angeles routes = PT.

SOURCE: INRIX

Holiday Forecast Methodology

Travel Forecast

In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.

Historical travel volume estimates come from MMGY’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM. The PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. MMGY contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, forecast U.S. travel behavior and position brand, all after the trips have been taken.

The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of May 19, 2025.

Because AAA holiday forecasts focus on domestic leisure travel only, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers should not be made. TSA data includes all passengers traveling on both domestic and international routes, whether traveling for work or leisure. Additionally, TSA screens passengers each time they enter secured areas of the airport, therefore each one-way trip is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which include the full round-trip travel itinerary. As a result, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and daily TSA screenings represent different factors.

Independence Day Holiday Travel Period
The Independence Day holiday travel period is defined as the nine-day period from Saturday, June 28 to Sunday, July 6. Historically, this holiday period included only one weekend. The expanded travel window was instituted starting in 2024 with historical results calculated back to 2019 using the new nine-day period.

About AAA
Started in 1902 by automotive enthusiasts who wanted to chart a path for better roads in America and advocate for safe mobility, AAA has transformed into one of North America’s largest membership organizations. Today, AAA delivers exceptional roadside assistance, helps travelers plan their dream vacations and adventures, offers exclusive member discounts and benefits, and provides trusted financial and insurance services – all to enhance the life journey of our 65+ million members across North America, including nearly 58 million in the United States. To learn more about all AAA offers or become a member, visit AAA.com.

About S&P Global
S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses, and individuals with the right data, expertise, and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges, and accelerate progress for the world. We are widely sought after by many of the world’s leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics, and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world’s leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com.

About MMGY
MMGY Global is the world’s leading integrated marketing firm specializing in the travel, hospitality, and lifestyle industries. With operating brands around the world, the award-winning organization maintains a global communications practice in all marketing channels, serving many of the world’s premier travel and tourism brands. As a company dedicated to the travel industry, MMGY Global strives to create a connected, inclusive, and peaceful world by promoting travel as a cultural bridge of understanding. For more information, visit www.mmgyglobal.com.

About INRIX
Founded in 2004, INRIX pioneered intelligent mobility solutions by transforming big data from connected devices and vehicles into mobility insights. This revolutionary approach enabled INRIX to become one of the leading providers of data and analytics into how people move. By empowering cities, businesses, and people with valuable insights, INRIX is helping to make the world smarter, safer, and greener. With partners and solutions spanning across the entire mobility ecosystem, INRIX is uniquely positioned at the intersection of technology and transportation – whether it’s keeping road users safe, improving traffic signal timing to reduce delay and greenhouse gasses, optimizing last mile delivery, or helping uncover market insights. Learn more at INRIX.com.