National Average Drops Further

The price at the pump continues to reflect seasonality as refineries complete scheduled maintenance and prepare for the summer driving season. The national average price for regular unleaded gasoline has fallen for 24 of the past 30 days, after reaching a peak-to-date price for 2015 of $2.46 per gallon on March 7. While prices could still rise again this spring if global crude prices rise or domestic refineries experience production issues, the timing of this seasonal peak would be within the range of recent years but the “high” would be significantly lower. Peak dates and prices in recent years were April 28, 2014 ($3.70); February 27, 2013 ($3.79); April 5 and 6, 2012 ($3.94); and May 5, 2011 ($3.98).

Today’s national average price at the pump is $2.39 per gallon, which represents a savings of three cents versus one week ago and seven cents versus one month ago. Consumers continue to experience significant year-over-year savings in the price of retail gasoline and are saving $1.19 per gallon compared to this same date last year.

Locally, South Jersey motorists are paying an average of $2.12 for a gallon of unleaded gas. This represent a 1-cent increase over last week’s price ($2.11), but at 13-cent decrease over one month ago ($2.25) and $1.22 less than one year ago ($3.34).

Production issues have largely been resolved in the Midwest and on the West Coast, following a number of unexpected issues at refineries, which caused regional price spikes over the past few weeks. Despite these localized swings, the low price of crude oil has kept the national average relatively stable over the past month. Unless there are new regional refinery issues or global crude prices turn markedly higher, drivers can expect to see pump prices continue to slide leading up to the start of the summer driving season.

California drivers continue to pay the most in the nation for retail gasoline ($3.15). However, with local refineries returning to normal production levels, prices in the state have posted the largest declines in the nation over the past several weeks and have narrowed the price spread between the Golden State and Hawaii ($3.12), which usually holds the title for the most expensive state average in the country. Alaska ($2.91), Nevada ($2.79) and Washington ($2.74) round out the top five most expensive markets. Motorists in South Carolina ($2.09), Tennessee ($2.13) and Mississippi ($2.15) are paying the nation’s lowest prices to refuel their vehicles.

Most drivers across the country are experiencing week-over-week savings at the pump. The average price is down in 40 states and Washington D.C., with the largest drops seen in Indiana (-14 cents), Ohio (-13 cents) and Kentucky (-10 cents). Retail prices have ticked higher versus one week ago in 10 states, all by less than a nickel per gallon, led by: Wyoming, Montana and South Dakota (all +3 cents).

Forty-one states are now posting month-over-month discounts in the average price per gallon, led by California (-29 cents), Minnesota (-22 cents) and Oregon (-18 cents). Twelve additional states are registering monthly savings of a dime or more per gallon, and drivers in 36 states are saving at least a nickel per gallon over this same period. On the other end of the spectrum, prices moved higher versus one month ago in 9 states and Washington, D.C, with Utah (+25 cents), Idaho (+24 cents), Illinois (+14 cents) and Wyoming (+11 cents) are all posting premiums of a dime or more per gallon.

The average price at the pump nationwide remains substantially less expensive than one year ago, due to the relatively low price of crude. Every state and Washington, D.C., continues to post year-over-year savings, and the average price for retail gasoline is down by more than a dollar in 42 states and Washington, D.C. The price at the pump is discounted by $1.25 or more in 12 states.

The global oil market remains in flux due to news of declining revenues for producers as well as the potential for additional supply to enter the market. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) member nations posted their lowest net export revenues since 2010, due to reductions in oil exports from the countries and the sharply lower price of crude. Market watchers remain focused on the oil cartel for any signs of a move to cut production to stabilize prices, and with news of a framework for a nuclear agreement having been reached between Western powers and Iran, speculations of oversupply are expected to keep downward pressure on the market. Iran holds the world’s fourth largest proven reserves of crude oil but since 2012 sanctions have limited the OPEC member country’s ability to participate fully in the global oil market.

At the close of Thursday’s formal trading on the NYMEX, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed down 95 cents at $49.14 per barrel. The NYMEX was closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday.