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AAA Fuel Gauge Report Overview By Avery Ash Director, Federal Affairs Monday, April 13, 2015
Apr 13, 2015 | Fuel
The national average price for regular unleaded gasoline has continued to point lower, due to the resolution of regional refinery issues and a global price of crude oil that remains relatively low. Today’s average price of $2.39 per gallon is fractions of a penny higher than one week ago, but represents a savings of one nickel per gallon versus one month ago. Consumers are saving $1.25 per gallon compared to this same date last year, and motorists continue to pay significantly lower prices at the pump in comparison to previous years: April 13, 2011 ($3.81); April 13, 2012 ($3.90), April 13, 2013 ($3.54). National pump prices have fallen for 22 of the past 30 days.
Locally, South Jersey motorists are paying an average of $2..14 per gallon of unleaded fuel. This represents an increase of 2 cents per gallon compared to last week ($2.12), but a decrease of 8 cents per gallon from last month ($2.22), and $1.23 less than one year ago.
Despite falling for the majority of the previous month, retail averages maintain the potential to inch upward short-term as we approach the summer driving season. The price at the pump remains heavily influenced by the global price of crude and the ability of domestic refineries to manage scheduled and unscheduled maintenance. Any market moving developments in the aforementioned items will cause the price at the pump to fluctuate; however it is estimated that even with prices reflecting seasonality, consumers are expected see prices move lower leading up to the peak driving season this summer.
California and Hawaii ($3.10) are nation’s most expensive markets for retail gasoline, and the only two states posting averages above $3 per gallon. Alaska ($2.93), Nevada ($2.78) and Washington ($2.73) round out the top five most expensive markets. On the other end of the spectrum, drivers in South Carolina ($2.10), Tennessee ($2.13) and New Jersey ($2.17) are paying the least per gallon at the pump.
Week-over-week comparisons are relatively stable, with average prices moving by +/- 3 cents in 39 states and Washington, D.C. Seven states experienced more dramatic movements in the price at the pump (+/- 5 cents per gallon), led by: Delaware (+10 cents), Kentucky (+8 cents) and Ohio (+8 cents) and Michigan (-9 cents).
The majority of states (36 and Washington, D.C) are posting monthly savings in the average price per gallon, largely due to localized refinery issues being resolved in the Midwest and West Coast markets. The Western states of California (-29 cents) and Oregon (-18 cents) are posting the largest discounts over this period, and are joined by six additional states where the average price at the pump is discounted by a dime or more per gallon. Retail averages have moved higher in 14 states month-over-month, led by Utah (+14 cents) and Illinois (+14 cents) where the price is up by more than one dime per gallon.
Every state and Washington, D.C. continues to post yearly savings, with the average price per gallon discounted by more than $1.00 in 45 states and Washington, D.C. Twenty-five states and Washington, D.C. are posting year-over-year savings of $1.25 per gallon or more, and motorists in Michigan (-$1.41), Illinois (-$1.40) and Indiana (-$1.38) are experiencing the largest savings over this period.
The global oil market remains bearish, despite the price of crude showing volatility reminiscent of the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009. Global supply continues to outpace demand, and news of sustained production from OPEC along with high-cost production countries like the U.S is expected to keep downward pressure on global crude prices. There have been reports of falling rig counts, particularly in the Northern U.S., due to sharply lower global prices that have shifted profitability dynamics for producers using new means to extract crude oil from the ground that is more expensive than traditional methods. Despite these numbers, U.S. oil production and supplies continue to outpace demand and exert downward pressure on crude oil prices.
At the close of Friday’s formal trading on the NYMEX, WTI was up 85 cents and settled at $51.64 per barrel.